The UTC Graduate School is pleased to announce that Collin Kilmer will present Master's research titled, Mathematical Modeling of Zoonotic Disease Transmission Under the Impact of Land Use Change on 03/19/2025 at 4:00pm in ECS 239. Everyone is invited to attend. 

Mathematics

Chair: Xiunan Wang

Co-Chair: 

Abstract:

Land conversion is occurring worldwide due to a growing population and expanding economy. This process increases the likelihood of pathogen spillover, posing significant economic and public health risks. The objective of this thesis is to model pathogen spillover under the impact of land use change. We develop a zoonotic disease transmission model that describes spillover of Puumala virus from bank voles to humans during land conversion. Our model introduces a land conversion index to capture the dependence of the carrying capacity and the death rate of bank voles on the proportion of converted land. This index is then used to examine how different levels of land conversion influence pathogen spillover. Through simulations, we demonstrate that the risk of pathogen spillover from bank voles to humans is highest at lower levels of land conversion.